Bitcoin (BTC) could experience further downside in the near future, but the majority of the bear market is likely already behind us. This is according to on-chain analyst Philip Swift, who runs the data resource LookIntoBitcoin. Swift believes that despite the current price pressure, Bitcoin is approaching the end of its macro downtrend. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Swift discussed the on-chain metrics that suggest a potential bottom for BTC. He highlighted the peak in the percentage of long-term holders (1yr HODL Wave), which indicates that these holders are not willing to take profit until prices rise. This limited supply in the market could lead to an increase in price when demand returns. Swift also pointed out the RHODL Ratio, which has dipped into its accumulation zone, indicating a loss of positive sentiment and a reset in the market. He believes that history will repeat itself in terms of Bitcoin cycles and that the current bear market is similar to the one in 2018/19. Swift sees the committed crypto community benefiting the most in the next bull run. He also mentioned the macro context, stating that lack of confidence in governments and traditional currencies will drive a rush towards private “hard” assets like Bitcoin. Swift recommends keeping an eye on key on-chain metrics such as the MVRV Z-Score and the Puell Multiple to spot the bottom. He expects BTC to reverse course in Q1 2023 and outperform in the coming year. Regarding Ethereum (ETH), Swift believes that its poor performance post-Merge is due to the global bear market, but he remains bullish on ETH in the long term due to its role in Web3. When asked about the best jurisdiction for a Bitcoin/crypto trader, Swift suggests low-tax, crypto-friendly locations such as Singapore and Bali. In conclusion, Swift advises investors to be patient and manage their emotions during the bear market.
Interview with BTC analyst Philip Swift predicts Bitcoin bear market lasting for a maximum of 2-3 months.
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