Bitcoin’s price has experienced a 55% increase in 2024, with a 12.5% gain in October. This surge can be attributed to a growing risk-on sentiment in the market, driven by better-than-expected Wall Street earnings. Investors are also factoring in the possibility of Federal Reserve rate cuts in November, further boosting optimism due to the rising odds of pro-crypto Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election.
In terms of fundamentals, Bitcoin (BTC) is well-positioned to enter a bull run cycle for the rest of 2024 and beyond. Both technical and on-chain indicators support this positive outlook. The first indication of a new bull cycle for Bitcoin comes from its two-month logarithmic chart, as shared by independent market analyst Coosh Alemzadeh. This chart highlights Bitcoin’s previous bullish phases, showing significant price increases during specific periods. These phases typically involve consolidation followed by a sharp vertical rally.
As of October 2024, Bitcoin is showing signs of breaking out of its consolidation phase, which often indicates the start of a bull run. Market analyst Ted Pillows agrees with this assessment, noting a similar breakout from Bitcoin’s consolidation channel. He believes that Bitcoin’s “parabolic phase” has begun, aligning with historical patterns of rapid price acceleration. Alemzadeh’s fractal analysis further predicts that Bitcoin will exceed $100,000 in 2025 and $250,000 in the long term.
Another positive sign for Bitcoin comes from its on-chain data, specifically tracking whale activity on spot exchanges. The “Exchange Whale Ratio,” represented by the 30-day moving average, is currently following patterns observed after the COVID-19 crash in 2020. During that time, whales accumulated Bitcoin aggressively, preceding a massive bull run that pushed Bitcoin to new all-time highs by the end of 2021. The current whale accumulation pattern suggests that large holders are positioning themselves for potential price gains.
The third indicator to consider is stablecoin dominance. Market analyst Doctor Magic notes that the dominance of stablecoins like USDT, USDC, and DAI has been steadily declining since mid-2024. Historically, when capital starts flowing out of stablecoins, it often indicates significant price increases across top-ranking cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. This decline in stablecoin dominance suggests that investors anticipate Bitcoin’s appreciation against the US dollar, reflecting a growing risk appetite and market confidence.
It is important to note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading decisions involve risk, and readers are advised to conduct their own research before making any decisions.