Bitcoin price falls short of reaching $45K, yet derivatives markets indicate traders’ positivity.

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged above $40,000 for the first time since April 2022, leading to speculation about whether a correction down to $41,000 is likely. Over the past 16 days, there have been multiple rejections at the $44,000 level, followed by retests of the $41,000 support. This comes as the chances of approval for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) have increased, with issuers amending their filings to comply with regulations. Traders are questioning whether the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF will trigger a price crash, with some suggesting a “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern. However, others believe that the true impact on price will be seen three months after the ETF approval, and have a bullish outlook for the long term. The Bitcoin futures premium has remained above the neutral-to-bullish threshold, indicating continued demand for leverage long positions. The options market also shows moderate confidence among bulls, but not enough to justify a premium for call options. Regulatory uncertainty remains a risk, limiting investor appetite and strengthening the $44,000 resistance level. However, Bitcoin whales do not appear concerned about the recent rejection, leaving room for further gains before the spot ETF approval.