The recent Bitcoin halving event on April 20 has the potential to ignite the most bullish Bitcoin cycle yet, thanks to historical chart patterns and the emergence of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
On March 13, Bitcoin reached an unprecedented all-time high of over $73,600, marking a significant milestone in the crypto world prior to the halving event. Historical data shows that Bitcoin typically experiences a surge to new highs within 518 to 546 days after previous halving events.
This pre-halving record, combined with the influx of institutional investments from ten spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, has created an extremely favorable market environment for Bitcoin. Sukhveer Sanghera, the founder and CEO of Earth Wallet, describes this as the “most bullish setup” for Bitcoin.
Despite a 5.6% weekly drop in Bitcoin’s price, which currently stands above $63,600, the cryptocurrency has seen a remarkable 50% rally since the beginning of the year, according to TradingView data.
While the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish, it is worth noting that halving events are typically preceded by short-term corrections in the market. However, if Bitcoin manages to surpass the $65,000 resistance level, it could mark the end of the current downturn, explains Temujin Louie, CEO of Wanchain.
The recent sluggish price action of Bitcoin can be attributed to a slowdown in Bitcoin accumulation within the ten U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Net inflows turned negative during the week of the halving, with a total outflow of $398 million, compared to the previous week’s inflow of over $199 million, as reported by Dune.
Despite this temporary setback, the cumulative holdings of the ten Bitcoin ETFs amount to over 835,000 BTC, equivalent to $53.5 billion and accounting for 4.24% of the total Bitcoin supply.
This dip in ETF inflows should not overshadow the positive narrative surrounding Bitcoin’s price action. In fact, it indicates that new investors are preparing to enter the market and gain exposure to BTC, suggests Jonas Simanavicius, co-founder and CTO at Syntropy. Simanavicius also highlights the growing perception of Bitcoin as a hedge against political tensions and a safe haven asset in times of global conflict.
In related news, it is projected that Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges will be depleted within the next nine months, according to Bybit.