Charles Edwards, an analyst and founder of the Capriole Investments fund, has stated that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies still have a significant way to go in this bull market, based on various on-chain metrics. In his recent newsletter, Edwards pointed out that transaction fees from the recent Runes launch, along with other long-term metrics after the Bitcoin halving, indicate higher baseline Bitcoin prices. He also emphasized that Bitcoin has become harder than gold after its fourth halving, resulting in a decrease in the digital asset’s supply growth rate, surpassing gold in terms of inflation rate. Edwards believes that Bitcoin’s ability to preserve long-term wealth makes it a global fungible asset. Market intelligence firm Glassnode shares a similar view, stating that the halving has led Bitcoin to surpass gold in terms of issuance scarcity. Glassnode analysts also predict that governments will continue printing money to offset their debts, causing their currencies to lose value against Bitcoin, making it the “hardest money ever created.”
As for the implications of the Bitcoin halving on its price, Edwards believes that three scenarios are likely to occur. Firstly, the BTC price may skyrocket. Secondly, around 15% of Bitcoin miners may shut down their operations. And thirdly, transaction fees may remain at higher levels than average. Edwards believes that a combination of these scenarios is possible. However, Glassnode cautions readers to be mindful of historical precedents, stating that Bitcoin’s performance during various halving epochs is too different to be used as a guide for the current situation. Glassnode also notes that the current market dynamics and landscape differ significantly from previous halving events. While they do not rule out the possibility of exponential growth in Bitcoin’s price, they suggest that it may not follow the same pattern as in the past. On the other hand, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, believes that Bitcoin’s journey from its current levels to $1 million may not be as challenging as its history of rising from zero, especially considering the bursting of the sovereign debt bubble.
It is important to note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Readers should conduct their own research and exercise caution when making investment and trading decisions.