Bitcoin’s price may have already reached its peak for this cycle at $70,000, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt. However, other models and predictors suggest that Bitcoin could actually reach $210,000 before the bull run ends. Brandt proposed the “exponential decay” pattern, which shows that each successive cycle’s peak price is only around 20% of the previous cycle’s peak gain. This pattern has been observed in the last three Bitcoin market cycles. Based on this decay rate, Brandt estimated that the current cycle would only see a 4.5x gain from its low of approximately $15,500, resulting in a projected cycle top of $70,000. However, Brandt is not entirely convinced by his theory and assigns a 25% probability that Bitcoin has already peaked this cycle.
Giovanni Santostasi, CEO and director of research at Quantonomy, challenged Brandt’s theory with his own based on long-term power law behavior. Santostasi measured the percentage deviation of price peaks from the long-term power law trend and extrapolated a different exponential decay pattern. Using this model, he predicted a fourth cycle peak of around $210,000 in December 2025, with a projected bottom for the next cycle at approximately $83,000.
Many others have also made predictions about Bitcoin’s peak during this cycle. Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal expects Bitcoin to at least double by the next halving in 2028, estimating a price of around $120,000. Laurent Benayoun, CEO of Acheron Trading and a quantitative trading strategies expert, anticipates a potential cycle top of $180,000. Fidelity Digital Assets revised its medium-term outlook for Bitcoin on April 22, stating that it is “no longer cheap.”
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $62,528, down 15% from its all-time high in mid-March, according to CoinGecko.