Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo predicts that the cryptocurrency industry will achieve its first billion users by the end of 2025, according to a post he made on April 29th. Woo’s chart, which aims to map out all existing crypto asset users and predict the first billion adopters, is considered the first comprehensive model of its kind. Investor and author of the Bitcoin ESG Forecast, Daniel Batten, commented on Woo’s chart, stating that it defines crypto users as unique entities who have completed Know Your Customer (KYC) verification and have previously transacted on the blockchain.
Reaching one billion crypto users has long been seen as a significant milestone for mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies. Mainstream adopters can bring in a new influx of capital, which is crucial for the price appreciation of digital assets.
According to a report by Crypto.com in January 2024, the number of cryptocurrency owners increased by 34% to 580 million in 2023. Bitcoin holders specifically grew by 33%, from 222 million in January to 296 million in December 2023, accounting for 51% of global crypto holders. The report highlights that the growth in users was primarily driven by developments surrounding Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
However, based on the growth observed in 2023, it seems unlikely that the current 580 million users will experience a 72% increase necessary to reach one billion by the end of 2025.
In a joint report in 2022, Boston Consulting Group, Bitget, and Foresight Ventures, estimated that the industry would reach one billion crypto users by 2030. The report compares the adoption curve of the internet to the current number of cryptocurrency holders and Ethereum addresses with non-zero balances. The assumption is that if the current rate of crypto adoption continues, reaching one billion users is feasible.
BCG emphasizes that crypto adoption is still relatively low and has “plenty of room to grow.” The consulting firm estimates that only 0.3% of individual wealth is invested in crypto, while 25% is invested in global equities.
Overall, the cryptocurrency industry’s goal of reaching one billion users by 2025 seems challenging based on the current growth rate. However, the potential for continued adoption and the influx of mainstream users could pave the way for achieving this milestone in the coming years.