Google recently released a study conducted by Andrew McAfee of the MIT Sloan School of Management, which found no direct link between the advancement of technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and unemployment. The study focused on the global economic impact of generative AI and revealed that, at least in the short term, there is no correlation between AI and unemployment due to the limitations of the technology.
The study cited a previous experiment in 2023 that compared the performance of humans and AI systems on a series of questions. While humans scored an average of 92% correct answers, machines only scored 15%. However, the study acknowledged that generative AI has the potential to improve rapidly through intense research aimed at addressing its weaknesses.
To illustrate this point, the study mentioned OpenAI’s GPT 3.5 system, released in late 2022, which outperformed only 10% of humans on the U.S. bar exam. Its successor, GPT 4, released just a year later, performed better than 90% of humans. The study concluded that there is still a great deal of important work that cannot be done by today’s robots and AI systems, despite their power.
The study compared AI to the steam engine, which ignited the Industrial Revolution in the late 1800s. However, unlike the gradual spread of technology during that time, the impacts of generative AI are expected to manifest more quickly. This is due to the existing infrastructure being in place and the ease of access for people to start working with AI.
While the study does not predict massive technological unemployment, it does suggest that higher-paying jobs may be hollowed out by AI. It also highlights the potential for AI to disrupt competition between businesses, giving an advantage to a small group of “superstars” in each industry. This could lead to layoffs for incumbent companies, increasing the number of people who need to find new jobs and acquire new skills. However, the study found that companies heavily invested in machine learning were not the ones conducting layoffs.
In summary, the study emphasizes that while generative AI has the potential to transform the workforce and disrupt industries, there is currently no direct link between AI and unemployment. It encourages further research and development to address the weaknesses of AI and unlock its full potential.