Google has recently released a study conducted by Andrew McAfee, a principal research scientist at the MIT Sloan School of Management, which states that there is no direct correlation between the advancement of technology like artificial intelligence (AI) and unemployment. The study focuses on the global economic impact of generative AI and concludes that, at least in the short term, there is no evidence to suggest a significant change. The report cites a previous study from 2023, which found that humans scored an average of 92% correct answers on tests, while machines only achieved 15%. However, the study acknowledges that generative AI has the potential to improve rapidly with further research to address its weaknesses.
The study highlights OpenAI’s GPT-3.5 system as an example of the progress made in AI. The system, released in late 2022, outperformed only 10% of humans on the United States bar exam. However, its successor, GPT-4, achieved better results than 90% of humans just a year later. Despite these advancements, the study emphasizes that there is still a great deal of important work that cannot be done by current robots and AI technology.
The study compares AI to the steam engine, which sparked the global Industrial Revolution in the late 1800s. However, unlike the gradual spread of technology during that period, the impacts of generative AI are expected to occur more rapidly. This is due to the existing infrastructure being in place, allowing for swift implementation of improvements, and the accessibility of AI technology for individuals to start working with it.
While the study suggests that generative AI may not lead to massive technological unemployment, it does acknowledge that it could contribute to the “hollowing out” of higher-paying jobs. Additionally, generative AI has the potential to disrupt competition between businesses, favoring a small group of “superstars” in each industry. This could lead to layoffs by fading incumbents and an increased need for people to find new jobs and acquire new skills. However, the study also found that companies that heavily invested in machine learning were not the ones conducting layoffs.
In conclusion, the study highlights the importance of continued research and development in the field of generative AI. While it may not directly cause unemployment on a large scale, it has the potential to transform the workforce and reshape competition between businesses.