Bitcoin’s price has seen a significant decline in recent days, causing concern among those who anticipated a surge following the fourth halving. The price of Bitcoin dropped by 11% since the halving, which took place on April 20 at 12:09 am UTC. On the halving date, Bitcoin was trading around $64,000. Immediately after the halving, there was a short rally, with Bitcoin surpassing $67,000 on April 22. However, the price has gradually fallen since then, dropping below $57,000 on May 1, according to CoinGecko data. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $57,362, representing a 7% decrease in the past 24 hours and a 17% decrease over the past 30 days.
The sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price after the halving may have surprised those who expected a rise similar to previous halving cycles. Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been associated with post-event rallies that usually occur about a year later. For instance, after the 2016 halving, Bitcoin surged by approximately 3,000% in 17 months and reached a milestone of $20,000 in December 2017.
However, this current cycle differs significantly from past halving events. One notable difference is that Bitcoin experienced an extraordinary bull run before the fourth halving, reaching a new all-time high just before the event. This price trajectory is unprecedented in Bitcoin’s history.
Mati Greenspan, the founder of Quantum Economics, highlighted the uniqueness of this halving, stating, “What’s unique about this latest Bitcoin halving is the incredible bull run and price action leading up to it. Even considering this recent pullback, Bitcoin has still been up 35% since the start of the year.” Greenspan also noted that the drop in BTC’s price was to be expected given the decline in the stock market and economic circumstances.
Some crypto analysts had previously predicted a drop in Bitcoin’s price following the fourth halving. In March 2024, analysts from JPMorgan predicted a potential drop towards $42,000 after the event. Markus Thielen, CEO and head analyst at 10x Research, believes Bitcoin may fall to $52,000. Thielen attributes the recent rally to the inflow of funds into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which has significantly slowed down in the past month.
While the halving and United States ETFs are factors that could contribute to Bitcoin’s surge to new highs in 2024, investment researcher Lyn Alden believes there are many more reasons for Bitcoin’s potential growth.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s recent price decline post-halving has defied expectations and differs from previous halving cycles. Various factors, including market conditions and ETF inflows, may have influenced this decline. However, there are still optimistic perspectives on Bitcoin’s future growth.