Americans will go to the polls on November 5th to choose their next president. The upcoming elections are expected to be a closely contested race, with increased polarization among voters and generally low voter turnout. As election day approaches, presidential candidates are vying for the public’s trust and making promises of a better future. Surprisingly, cryptocurrency has become part of the political discourse.
Former President Donald Trump appears to have changed his stance on crypto, adopting a more conciliatory approach and promising a positive future for the cryptocurrency industry in the United States. However, some question whether Trump’s newfound support for crypto is genuine or if he is simply using it as a political tactic to secure votes as the election draws nearer.
During his presidency, Trump was generally critical of cryptocurrencies, echoing common criticisms from politicians that crypto is “based on thin air” and used for illicit activities such as drug trafficking. However, as the 2024 elections approach, Trump has shifted his narrative.
In a recent event for holders of his nonfungible tokens (NFTs) at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, Trump surprised the crypto community by accusing President Joe Biden and the current head of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Gensler, of conspiring against cryptocurrencies. He presented himself as the alternative for pro-crypto voters.
Trump’s change in stance comes in response to the Biden administration’s threat to veto the H.J.Res. 109 SEC crypto bill, which would allow U.S.-regulated financial institutions to custody cryptocurrencies. Influential crypto advocates, including Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson, have criticized Biden’s policy, claiming that it is detrimental to the industry.
Ryan Selkis, founder and CEO of blockchain analytics firm Messari, has also expressed concerns about the crypto industry facing hostile regulations if Biden is reelected. Trump has capitalized on these concerns, claiming that “crypto is moving out of the U.S. because of hostility toward crypto” and suggesting that allowing the industry to thrive in the country is essential.
While some in the crypto community have embraced Trump’s support for crypto, others are more skeptical about his motivations. Mónica Taher, the former tech and business innovation director for the government of El Salvador, believes that some politicians are using crypto as a way to elevate their status and present themselves as innovators. She sees Trump as an opportunist who is accepting crypto donations to alleviate his financial troubles.
Andrew M. Bailey, co-author of Resistance Money and a fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, believes that Trump’s pro-crypto stance is part of a pattern of making positive statements about crypto without providing concrete plans or sincere commitment. However, Bailey acknowledges that this strategy might still be effective in courting the crypto vote.
Regardless of Trump’s motivations, the fact remains that crypto holders could play a significant role in swing states where the election outcome is uncertain. A poll conducted by Paradigm shows that 19% of registered U.S. voters have bought crypto, and they are willing to change parties. This could have a crucial impact on the election results.
The Digital Currency Group (DCG) conducted a survey in partnership with The Harris Poll, titled “Crypto Attitudes in the Swing States,” which collected data from six swing states. The study found that voters in these states are politically engaged and nearly evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. Additionally, 26% of respondents pay attention to a candidate’s stance on crypto, and 21% consider it a significant issue in the election.
The overall sentiment among respondents is that excessive regulation could stifle innovation in the crypto industry. They want legislators to understand crypto before regulating it. Venture capitalist Tim Draper expressed concerns about regulators lacking knowledge about crypto and the potential consequences of their actions.
With six months remaining until the November elections, candidates’ positions could still change, and Trump’s legal issues could develop further. If Trump wants to secure the support of crypto holders, he will need to offer concrete plans and prove that he is a genuine advocate for the industry. Otherwise, his promises may be seen as empty rhetoric, like those of many other politicians.