Around $2.7 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ether options are set to expire on May 24, providing valuable insights into the sentiment of the cryptocurrency market.
According to a post on X by Greeks.live, there are 21,000 Bitcoin (BTC) options about to expire, with a put/call ratio of 0.88. This suggests a relatively even balance between buyers and sellers, with a slight tendency towards call options.
The maximum pain point, which is the price at which most option buyers would experience losses, is $67,000, with a total value of $1.4 billion.
While the upcoming expiry of 21,000 contracts is significant, it pales in comparison to the much larger event on May 31, when $4.3 billion worth of options are set to expire, according to Deribit.
Data from Deribit shows that long positions currently dominate open interest (OI), with a substantial $830 million tied to the $70,000 strike price. Additionally, higher strike prices also show significant OI, particularly $843 million at the $100,000 mark, indicating a bullish sentiment among traders. The $60,000 strike price stands out for put contracts, with $388 million in open interest.
This high OI suggests that many contracts are still unresolved, indicating that bulls are confident in much higher Bitcoin prices, as OI represents the value of contracts waiting to be settled.
The options expiry event is not limited to Bitcoin, as there are also 350,000 Ether (ETH) contracts set to expire, with a notional value of $1.3 billion. The put/call ratio of 0.58 and a max pain point of $3,200 suggest a slightly bullish tone, with more call options expiring than put options.
According to Greeks.live’s report, Ethereum recently took the lead in the crypto rally, following progress in ETFs, experiencing a one-day 20% increase. The short-term options implied volatility (IV) reached 150% at one point, significantly higher than Bitcoin’s current IV for the same period.
However, there is now a clear divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum. While Ethereum’s bullish sentiment remains strong, maintaining high IV levels for each major term is challenging in terms of overall market trading and structure.
This suggests that calendar spreads may be a better option. In contrast, Bitcoin appears to have a more balanced distribution between long and short positions, with stronger selling call forces.
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