According to cryptocurrency executives, the impressive performance of technology company Nvidia (NVDA) compared to Bitcoin (BTC) over the past decade should not be seen as an indication of future success. Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten stated that there is a “near zero chance” of Nvidia outperforming Bitcoin in the next 10 years. Investment strategist Lyn Alden also expressed her preference for Bitcoin over Nvidia, despite acknowledging that NVDA had outperformed Bitcoin over a 10-year period.
Data from Statmuse shows that between May 23, 2014, and May 23, 2024, Nvidia has returned 21,558%, while Bitcoin has returned 13,048%. However, in the past three months since the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin has slightly outperformed Nvidia with returns of 31.7% and 30.2% respectively.
The Kobeissi Letter highlighted that a $10,000 investment in Nvidia stock in 1999 would be worth $25.3 million today. This raises the question of whether Nvidia was considered a riskier investment in 2014 when both Bitcoin and AI were less widely adopted.
Sina, co-founder of 21st.capital, argued that financial assets generally have a broader impact than AI as more people start using them. He stated that there are no network effects in AI, whereas money has multiple layers of network effects.
While there are optimistic predictions for Bitcoin’s performance in the next two years, there are also warnings of a significant correction. Former physics professor Giovanni Santostasi, using his “Power Law” model, predicts that Bitcoin could reach a peak of $210,000 in January 2026 and then drop as low as $60,000 afterwards.