Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, has been unanimously found guilty of falsifying records to cover up a sex scandal. This verdict could have serious implications for his upcoming campaign for the 2024 U.S. election.
May 2024 has been a significant month for crypto enthusiasts, as there has been a notable shift in U.S. policy towards crypto regulation. Trump has taken advantage of this and positioned himself as a pro-crypto candidate, hoping to secure votes from crypto advocates.
The political shake-up began when Joe Biden threatened to veto the Congressional Review Act (CRA) H.J.Res. 109, which aimed to review and remove the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121 (SAB 121). The U.S. Congress successfully passed H.J.Res. 109 with an exceptional bipartisan vote rate of 60 to 38, despite a divided Congress. This shift in the political landscape prompted Trump to make his move.
Although Trump previously declared in 2019 that he was “not a fan of Bitcoin,” his stance on U.S. crypto regulation has changed dramatically. He has made open promises to support the U.S. becoming a leader in the crypto field, advocating for the right to self-custody, accepting crypto for his campaign, and opposing the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). He even boasted about keeping Elizabeth Warren and her supporters away from Bitcoin.
This sudden change in Trump’s stance has sparked hope within the crypto community for a more favorable U.S. crypto policy. Pro-crypto voters have taken notice, and a poll conducted by the Digital Currency Group (DCG) on May 7 showed that Trump’s new position could force Biden to reconsider his anti-crypto stance, especially since crypto voters could play a significant role in swing states during the upcoming elections.
However, with Trump now being a convicted criminal, his presidential candidacy may be in jeopardy. Furthermore, the positive shift in U.S. crypto policy could be at risk. The final sentence for Trump’s conviction is set for July 11, 2024, just a week before the Republican Party Convention, where he is expected to be nominated as the candidate. There is a possibility that Trump may appeal the sentence, which could postpone the final decision until 2025, by which time he could already be in the White House.
While there is a chance that Trump could serve time in jail, it is unlikely as the offenses for which he has been convicted are not usually punishable by imprisonment in New York. Legal experts suggest that house arrest might be a more feasible option, considering factors such as Trump’s age, status, and the fact that this is his first offense.
According to Article II, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution, there are only three requirements for serving as President, and having a clean criminal record is not one of them. Even if Trump were to be sentenced to jail, he could technically continue as President.
However, even if Trump remains eligible to run for President, social pressure or the Republican party may push him to withdraw his candidacy. In that case, it is uncertain whether the pro-crypto policies he advocated for would find support within the Republican party.
The crypto community, accustomed to volatility, remains unfazed by the political uncertainties. Trump’s conviction adds more unpredictability to a market that is used to constant shake-ups.