ExOpenAI scientist predicts emergence of AGI by 2027

Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former safety researcher at OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, has delved deeper into the realm of artificial general intelligence (AGI) in his latest series of essays on artificial intelligence.
Named “Situational Awareness,” the series provides insights into the current state of AI systems and their promising potential in the coming decade. The entire series of essays can be found in a 165-page PDF file updated on June 4.
In his essays, Aschenbrenner focused extensively on AGI, a form of AI that can either match or exceed human capabilities in a wide array of cognitive tasks. AGI is just one of the various types of artificial intelligence, which also include artificial narrow intelligence (ANI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI).
Aschenbrenner boldly stated, “AGI by 2027 is remarkably feasible,” and he foresees AGI machines surpassing college graduates by 2025 or 2026. He elaborated:
Aschenbrenner suggested that AI systems could potentially possess intellectual abilities akin to those of a professional computer scientist. He also made a daring prediction that AI labs would be capable of training general-purpose language models within minutes, asserting:
In his predictions about the triumph of AGI, Aschenbrenner urged the community to confront its inevitability. He claimed that the brightest minds in the AI industry have united around a concept he terms “AGI realism,” which is grounded in three foundational principles linked to the national security and AI advancement of the United States.
Aschenbrenner’s AGI series follows his alleged dismissal from OpenAI for purportedly leaking information. He was also said to be an ally of OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever, who was reportedly involved in an unsuccessful attempt to remove OpenAI CEO Sam Altman in 2023. Aschenbrenner’s latest series is dedicated to Sutskever as well.
Aschenbrenner has recently established an investment firm concentrated on AGI, with key investments from notable figures like Stripe CEO Patrick Collison, according to his blog.
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