Bitcoin’s price experienced a significant drop of 5.6% on June 18, falling to $64,300, the lowest level in over a month. This decline coincided with worrisome macroeconomic indicators in the US, particularly in retail sales and employment. Despite the Federal Reserve maintaining high-interest rates, the derivatives markets are showing resilience, hinting at a potential recovery in BTC price.
The sluggish 0.1% increase in US retail sales, below economists’ expectations, suggests a lackluster second-quarter GDP. However, some experts believe that consumption is gradually returning to normal levels. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams remains optimistic about the economy, expecting inflation to decrease in the second half of the year. The Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts, waiting for more data before making a decision.
The high-interest rate environment in the US is not favorable for Bitcoin, especially with the S&P 500 reaching a record high on June 18. Additionally, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a significant outflow of $562 million in just three days, further dampening investor interest in the cryptocurrency.
By analyzing the long-to-short ratio of top traders on exchanges like Binance and OKX, it is evident that there is a strong demand for leveraged long positions despite Bitcoin’s price struggles. Bitcoin whales and miners also seem cautiously optimistic, as put options have declined in favor of call instruments, indicating a positive outlook during the recent dip in price.
Monitoring Bitcoin miners’ outflow is crucial, as they have the potential to offload a significant amount of BTC into the market weekly. Glassnode’s Miner Outflows Multiple shows reduced sell pressure since June 14, contrasting with the period from May 30 to June 13 when miners were selling more than usual.
With derivatives traders maintaining a bullish stance and miners showing reduced sell pressure, there is no immediate threat of further price pressure on Bitcoin. The current macroeconomic conditions suggest that the Fed may consider rate cuts by the end of the year, providing some hope for a potential BTC price recovery.