Bitcoin is facing a countdown of approximately 10 days until the macro conditions in the United States align with a potential increase in BTC prices. This analysis comes from financial commentator Tedtalksmacro, who closely monitors the correlation between BTC price movement and U.S. Federal Reserve liquidity. Tedtalksmacro has discovered a strong correlation between Bitcoin and Fed liquidity, which has remained consistent for several months. The accompanying chart from his proprietary macro data resource, Talking Macro, illustrates how BTC price highs and lows correspond with peaks and troughs in Fed liquidity. Even Bitcoin’s recent all-time high of $73,800 in mid-March coincided with a spike in liquidity. Tedtalksmacro explains that liquidity is calculated based on a combination of factors such as Fed assets, repo markets, and treasury data.
However, Talking Macro also highlights some short-term challenges for Bitcoin. They note a decline in inflows to U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which could present headwinds for the cryptocurrency. After experiencing the second-highest daily inflows on record in early June, there has been a reversal in the trend, with net outflows over the past four trading days on Wall Street. While the outflows amount to just over $700 million, they are still lower than the $886 million inflow on June 4, according to data from investment firm Farside Investors.
Looking ahead, there is growing anticipation for the third quarter and beyond, as institutional interest in Bitcoin is expected to surge when U.S. wirehouses gain access to spot ETF products. This development is seen as a significant milestone for Bitcoin’s transformation into a mainstream investment class. Cathie Wood, CEO of asset manager ARK Invest and one of the spot ETF providers, has expressed excitement about this event. She emphasizes that Bitcoin’s price action has occurred without the approval of major platforms, indicating that the real impact is yet to come.
It is important to note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Readers should conduct their own research and exercise caution when making investment decisions, as they involve risks.