Bitcoin (BTC) recently experienced a drop below $64,000, breaking its short-term holder realized price and indicating a potential further decline to levels not seen in 49 days, according to the cryptocurrency analysis firm CryptoQuant.
In a June 21 X post, CryptoQuant stated, “Bitcoin is now trading below the critical support level of $65.8K, currently sitting below $64K.” They added that falling below this threshold suggests a possible 8%-12% correction towards $60K, a level that hasn’t been breached since May 3 when Bitcoin was trading at $59,122, as reported by CoinMarketCap.
On June 22, Bitcoin’s recent decline led to a 2% drop to $63,442, falling below the short-term holder realized price at that time, which was $64,230, according to LookIntoBitcoin data. The short-term holder realized price (STH-RP) is an important indicator for traders as it represents the aggregate cost basis of more speculative Bitcoin holders—wallets that store Bitcoin for 155 days or less.
Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price. Source: CryptoQuant
The STH-RP can act as a strong support level, as it has done during much of the bull markets since early 2023. Although Bitcoin’s price has tested the STH-RP multiple times in recent weeks, breaching this level raises concerns among traders about the potential for further price decline.
“Bitcoin’s short-term holder realized price generally acts as support in upward trending markets,” pseudonymous crypto trader Crypto Caesar noted on June 19. “Let’s see if it holds,” added LookIntoBitcoin founder Phillip Swift.
If Bitcoin were to drop to $60,000, it would result in $1.64 billion in long positions being wiped out, according to CoinGlass data.
Bitcoin may experience an upside swing following an extended consolidation period. The cryptocurrency has been hovering around $65,000 for some time, leaving traders speculating about its next move, especially after two significant events this year: the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in January and the Bitcoin halving in April.
On June 13, it was reported that Bitcoin has been in its longest consolidation period in 92 days, leading analysts to believe that the extended stability may be setting the stage for a “massive upside rally.”
Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of on-chain and market analytics firm CryptoQuant, believes that “Bitcoin network fundamentals could support a market cap three times its current size compared to the last cyclical top.”
In a reference to a chart comparing BTC’s price and the associated hash rate to market capitalization ratio, Young Ju highlighted the ongoing volatility of the cryptocurrency and the resilience of the Bitcoin network. If this ratio continues to grow, Young Ju suggested that it could potentially sustain Bitcoin’s price at $265,000.
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