Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a decline of more than 3% this week as selling pressure from bears persisted. Although the price dropped below the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP) of $64,230, the bears were unable to deepen the correction. This indicates that the bulls are attempting to protect the STH-RP, which represents the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin holders who have stored Bitcoin for 155 days or less.
Data from Farside Investors shows that Bitcoin’s weakness has led to continuous outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds since June 13. This suggests that Bitcoin investors are feeling nervous about the near-term prospects.
Independent analyst Willy Woo mentioned in a post on X that Bitcoin’s recovery is likely to occur after “weak miners die” and the hashrate rebounds. In 2020, the hashrate recovered in 8 days, while in 2017, it took 24 days for the recovery to happen. Woo added that miner capitulation is taking longer this year after the halving, possibly due to factors boosting profits.
If Bitcoin manages to trade above $64,602, it is expected to attract buying interest in select altcoins. Let’s take a look at the top 5 cryptocurrencies that are showing strength on the charts.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
On June 21, Bitcoin broke below the $64,602 support level, but the bears were unable to capitalize on their advantage. This suggests that selling pressure is drying up at lower levels.
The bulls will need to push the price above the moving averages to trap the aggressive bears. If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair is likely to gain momentum and rally to $70,000 and then to $72,000. However, strong defense from bears can be expected in the $72,000 to $73,777 zone.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level or the moving averages, it will indicate that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. This will increase the likelihood of a deeper correction to $60,000.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls are attempting a recovery, but they are facing selling pressure at the 20-EMA. If the price continues to decline, the bears will try to push the pair below $63,379 and resume the downtrend. If they succeed, the pair could drop to $60,000.
However, the positive divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) suggests that selling pressure may decrease. The bulls will gain strength if they can break and close above the 50-simple moving average, which could lead to a rise to $67,000 and then $70,000.
Toncoin Price Analysis
The bulls managed to prevent Toncoin (TON) from falling below the 50-day SMA ($6.83), indicating strong buying at lower levels.
The bulls are now attempting to push the price above the overhead resistance of $7.67. If they succeed, the TON/USDT pair could rally to $8.29. This level may act as a strong resistance, but if the bulls overcome it, the pair may continue its upward movement towards $10.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $6.60, it will complete a head-and-shoulders pattern, which could lead to a downward move towards the pattern target of $4.91.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bears repeatedly pushed the price below the uptrend line but failed to initiate a downtrend. This suggests that bulls aggressively bought at lower levels. The $7.67 to $8.29 zone is likely to face strong selling pressure from bears, but if the bulls can overcome it, the pair may rally towards $10.
The first support to watch on the downside is the 20-EMA. If this level is breached, it will indicate that the pair may trade between $6.60 and $7.67 for some time. The bears will gain the upper hand if the price breaks and closes below $6.77.
Pepe Price Analysis
Pepe (PEPE) has been correcting over the past few days, but the bounce off $0.000010 suggests that the bulls are attempting a rebound.
Buyers will need to push the price above the downtrend line and the moving averages to signal the start of a sustained recovery. If they succeed, the PEPE/USDT pair could rise to $0.000014 and subsequently to $0.000016.
However, if the price turns down from the downtrend line or the moving averages, it will indicate that bears are still selling on rallies. A break below $0.000010 could open the doors for a fall to $0.000008.
The 4-hour chart shows that the 20-EMA has flattened out, and the RSI is just below the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. If buyers can drive the price above the downtrend line, the pair could reach $0.000014. This level may pose a minor obstacle, but if cleared, the pair may extend its relief rally to $0.000016.
The advantage will shift in favor of the bears if the uptrend line is breached, leading to a potential drop to the strong support zone between $0.000009 and $0.000010.
Kaspa Price Analysis
Kaspa (KAS) bounced off the 50-day SMA ($0.14) on June 18, indicating buying interest at lower levels. The bulls continued to buy and pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.15) on June 23.
If buyers can maintain the momentum and drive the price above the downtrend line, it will suggest that the correction may be over. The KAS/USDT pair could attempt a rally to the strong overhead resistance of $0.19.
On the downside, the critical support to watch is the 50-day SMA. A break below this level will indicate the start of a sharper correction to $0.10. The bulls will try to halt the decline at $0.10.
The 4-hour chart shows that the moving averages are on the verge of a crossover, and the RSI is in positive territory, indicating that the bulls are attempting a comeback. A break and close above $0.16 will clear the path for a rally to $0.18.
However, if the price falls below the moving averages, the bears will try to push the pair below $0.14. If this level holds, the pair is likely to consolidate between $0.14 and $0.16 for some time. A break below $0.14 could lead to a drop to $0.13.
JasmyCoin Price Analysis
JasmyCoin (JASMY) rebounded off the 50-day SMA ($0.03) on June 21, indicating that buyers are interested in lower levels.
The 20-day EMA ($0.03) is flattening out, and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a reduction in selling pressure. If buyers can overcome the resistance at the 20-day EMA, the JASMY/USDT pair could rally to $0.04.
However, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that bears are still active and continue to sell on rallies. The pair may then trade between the moving averages for some time. A break and close below the 50-day SMA could lead to a deeper fall towards $0.02.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls are attempting a relief rally, but they are facing resistance between the 50-SMA and the downtrend line. The crucial support to watch on the downside is the 20-EMA. A rebound from this level will improve the chances of a break above the downtrend line, potentially leading to a climb to $0.04.
However, a drop below the 20-EMA will indicate that bears are maintaining their pressure. Further selling could occur if the price breaks below the channel, potentially causing a plunge to $0.02.
Please note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.