Polymarket, a decentralized predictions platform, achieved a milestone in June, reaching $100 million in monthly trading volume. This surge in activity is largely driven by bets on the outcome of the United States presidential election. Currently, there are $203.3 million worth of bets placed on the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, which consists of individual “Yes” or “No” bets across 17 prediction markets.
As of now, U.S. President Donald Trump is the favorite, with 62% odds of winning the election. This translates to $24.7 million in bets for and against him. In second place is current U.S. President Joe Biden, with $23.9 million in bets on whether he will secure a second term. However, Biden’s odds have fallen from 34% to 21% following his lackluster performance in the Presidential Debate on June 28.
Interestingly, odds for Democrats Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, and Michelle Obama have spiked, leading some political commentators to question whether Biden should drop out of the race. Alongside the Presidential Election Winner market, other betting markets related to the elections have also attracted millions in bets.
Biden’s debate performance has caused a surge in “Yes” bets on the “Biden drops out of presidential race” and “Biden drops out by July 4” markets, which now stand at 43% and 9% respectively. Over $10 million has been wagered in these markets.
While there are also millions of dollars in bets placed on the chances of American rapper Kanye West and crypto skeptic Elizabeth Warren winning the presidency, the odds currently indicate a less than 1% chance for both candidates.
Polymarket, which operates on the Ethereum sidechain Polygon, achieved a trading volume of $109.9 million in June, surpassing the $100 million mark for the first time. This represents a significant increase from the trading volumes observed between January and May, which ranged from $38.9 million to $63 million. In fact, the trading volume has seen a 620% increase compared to the previous five months (August-December 2023).
Furthermore, the number of monthly active traders on Polymarket soared by 115% to 29,266 in June. In terms of the total value locked in Polymarket, it now stands at $40.2 million, reflecting a nearly 69% increase over the past 30 days.
In addition to the presidential election markets, Polymarket has also experienced substantial trading volumes in cryptocurrency prices and the UEFA European Football Championship 2024 markets.
Launched in June 2020, Polymarket recently raised $70 million and was led by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and venture capital firm Founders Fund. Yuga Cohler, an engineering lead at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, emphasized the importance of decentralized prediction markets in providing unbiased information and cutting through misleading narratives.
In conclusion, Polymarket’s success in reaching $100 million in monthly trading volume is driven by the high-stakes bets on the United States presidential election. The platform’s growth in trading volume and number of active traders reflects the increasing popularity of decentralized prediction markets.