The third quarter of 2024 has kicked off with a surge for Bitcoin (BTC) as bullish investors set their sights on reclaiming lost ground in pursuit of record highs. BTC’s price strength appears to be tentatively resurging, evidenced by the sustained $60,000 support across weekly, monthly, and quarterly intervals.
With a 4% gain over the previous 24 hours, Bitcoin faces a significant challenge in maintaining its current bullish trajectory after months of consolidation resulting in two dips below the $60,000 mark, now resembling potential bear traps. The question looms: can the bulls emerge victorious?
Traders are carefully monitoring not just the $60,000 threshold but also other crucial trendlines, seeking more assurance in Bitcoin’s price rebound within the bullish market. Macro-level economic indicators, including impending United States unemployment statistics and inflation cues from senior Federal Reserve officials, are expected to further increase overall market volatility this week.
In the realm of Bitcoin mining, the industry grapples with a prolonged phase of hash rate “capitulation.” Will the persistent low hash price continue to hinder the sector’s recovery?
As Bitcoin/USD endeavors to recover from what bullish enthusiasts hope was a deceptive breakdown, Cointelegraph explores these and other pertinent issues in the early days of July.
Bitcoin Navigates Market Climbs
A surge on the final day of June enabled Bitcoin to secure a promising closure above $62,500 for the week, month, and quarter. The upward momentum persisted as BTC/USD reached local peaks of $63,724 on Bitstamp before experiencing a subsequent downturn, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass indicates a 7% drop in June, culminating in a 12% decline for Bitcoin by the end of Q2.
While the near future remains uncertain, market participants still approach the current situation cautiously, acknowledging the considerable ground that needs to be regained for sentiment to improve.
Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, expressed concern about the present momentum, stating, “Bitcoin had a nice rally off of the lows, but at the moment, it doesn’t look like Bulls have enough momentum to close above the 21-Week Moving Average.” He also highlighted the potential consequences should BTC fail to surpass this level, indicating the possibility of another retest of recent lows before returning to all-time high territory.
Meanwhile, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted a significant “gap” in CME Group Bitcoin futures, molding a potential area of contention at $60,400.
An examination of the order book liquidity reveals multiple liquidity probes pointing to $64,100 as a critical area of interest in the near term.
Unemployment Figures and Fed’s Powell
An array of U.S. unemployment data releases promises to play a pivotal role in this week’s macroeconomic volatility. Despite the July 4 holiday, the upcoming events could trigger unforeseen market fluctuations.
In addition to the job market statistics, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech from a monetary policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, on July 2, along with the impending release of the minutes of the Fed’s previous meeting on inflation policy matters, are anticipated to impact the crypto market.
Trading desk QCP Capital appears increasingly sanguine about the broader risk-asset climate in the month of July, noting Bitcoin’s historical propensity for resilience post a negative June.
Key BTC Price Trendline in Focus
Presently, Bitcoin’s struggles mirror the challenge of conquering the significant $64,000 resistance level. This level’s importance lies in the convergence of several trendlines, particularly the 21-week moving average and the Bitcoin short-term holder (STH) cost basis, which has historically acted as support, with only one exception in August 2023.
Meanwhile, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric indicates that STH holdings are currently below the breakeven point, marking the first instance of such loss-making territory since October 2023.
Miners’ Prospects and Market Sentiment
Though BTC’s price has rebounded moderately, network fundamentals continue to reflect a state of “capitulation” among miners, amidst difficulties estimated to drop by 5% this week. However, optimism regarding profitability conditions has resurfaced as withdrawals from miner-affiliated wallets, miner coins sent to exchanges, and OTC transactions have significantly decreased over the past month.
The quarterly close has already impacted the crypto market sentiment positively, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index showing a marked shift toward “greed.” Santiment’s analysis also highlighted the potential for negative sentiment to signal a pending recovery.
It should be noted that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations, emphasizing the need for readers to conduct their own comprehensive research before making any investment or trading decisions.