Bitcoin (BTC) price is striving to rebound from its losses in June; however, onchain data indicates that BTC might encounter resistance around the $65,000 threshold.
Figures from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView reveal that BTC is currently trading at $62,288, marking a slight 0.5% decline over the past 24 hours and an 8.6% drop over the previous 30 days. This comes after a prolonged downward trend in June that nullified all the gains achieved in May.
Data from Coinglass suggests that when Bitcoin experiences a negative June, it typically stages a robust comeback in July. Historically, July has seen BTC deliver an average return of 7.98% and a median return of 9.60%.
While prospects for recovery this month seem promising, both technical analysis and onchain data hint at potential hindrances due to selling activity around the $65,000 level. A closer look at the daily chart illustrates that Bitcoin faces significant resistance on its path to recovery, particularly within the range of $61,817 to $56,914, marked by the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA, respectively.
“In the immediate future, one should anticipate resistance near the ~$65,000 level as short-term speculators may opt to exit their positions at a breakeven point,” noted analysts at Blockware Intelligence in a recent newsletter.
The sharp decline in June has pushed Bitcoin’s spot price well below the widely monitored short-term holder (STH) cost basis, sparking concerns of further corrections. As per LookIntoBitcoin data, the short-term holders’ cost basis stood at $64,513 by June 28, contrasting with the spot price of around $60,317.
The realized price or aggregate cost basis signifies the average price at which coins were last transacted onchain. Consequently, short-term holders now face losses and might seek to sell at a loss or breakeven, potentially amplifying selling pressure near the $65,000 level.
Independent analyst Ali Martinez also echoed this sentiment, suggesting that BTC price could face resistance above $65,000 based on the MVRV metric. Martinez hinted that breaching this level might pave the way for Bitcoin’s surge towards $78,700.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin 1-month liquidation heatmap by Coinglass registers sell-bids totaling $1.23 billion forming around $64,940, indicating anticipated market activity at that price point.
On a more optimistic note, Thomas Fahrer, the founder of crypto firm Apollo, expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s potential to surpass $65,000, noting that $940 million worth of Bitcoin shorts would be liquidated at that level.
“The primary rule regarding Bitcoin is to avoid shorting it,” declared Fahrer in a July 2 post on the X social platform. He further commented, “The inflows will materialize, and shorts will face consequences.”
It is essential to emphasize that this article does not provide investment advice or suggestions. Every investment and trading decision carries risks, and readers are encouraged to conduct their thorough research before making any financial moves.