Bitcoin’s price is striving to rebound from its losses in June, yet onchain data suggests potential hurdles around the $65,000 mark.
Recent figures from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicate Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $62,288, marking a slight 0.5% decline over the past 24 hours and an 8.6% decrease over the last 30 days. This downturn follows an extended slide throughout June that nullified gains accrued in May.
According to insights from Coinglass, historical data indicates a tendency for Bitcoin to rebound robustly in July following negative performance in June. In fact, BTC has historically recorded an average return of 7.98% with a median return of 9.60% during July.
However, both technical analysis and onchain metrics suggest that any recovery attempts this month may encounter resistance primarily driven by selling pressure around the $65,000 threshold. A detailed examination of the daily chart reveals formidable resistance zones between $61,817 and $56,914, aligned respectively with the 100-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA).
“In the short term, we anticipate resistance near the $65,000 level, as short-term speculators may seek to unwind their positions at breakeven,” noted analysts from Blockware Intelligence in their latest newsletter.
The June decline pushed Bitcoin’s spot price well below the widely monitored short-term holder (STH) cost basis, prompting concerns about deeper corrections. According to LookIntoBitcoin, as of June 28, the STH cost basis stood at $64,513, contrasting sharply with the spot price hovering around $60,317.
Realized price, or aggregate cost basis, signifies the average price at which coins were last transacted onchain. This discrepancy implies that short-term holders are currently facing losses and may contemplate exiting the market, potentially amplifying selling pressure around the $65,000 mark.
Independent analyst Ali Martinez supported this viewpoint, highlighting that based on market-value-to-realized-value metrics, Bitcoin’s price could encounter resistance above $65,000, with potential upward momentum towards $78,700 upon breaching this level.
In another observation, Coinglass’s Bitcoin one-month liquidation heatmap reveals substantial sell-bids accumulating around $64,940, amounting to approximately $1.23 billion.
Thomas Fahrer, founder of crypto firm Apollo, expressed optimism about Bitcoin surpassing $65,000, noting, “$940M of #Bitcoin shorts will be liquidated at 65K,” in a post on July 2.
“This article does not provide investment advice. All investment and trading decisions involve risks, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any decisions.”