The chances of President Joe Biden being reelected in the United States have dropped significantly to as low as 9% on the decentralized predictions platform, Polymarket. Speculation has arisen regarding whether Vice President Kamala Harris will replace Biden as the Democrat candidate. However, Biden’s odds have slightly recovered to 10% in Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, which has a total value of $226 million. The favorite to win the election is former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump, with odds of 61%. Harris follows closely in second place with odds of 19%.
Biden’s declining odds have also been reflected in the share prices on the predictions platform PredictIt, dropping from $0.25 to $0.20. As a result, Harris is now the leading Democrat candidate. However, Trump still holds the highest valued “Yes” shares at $0.58. Concerns about Biden’s fitness for a second term have been raised by the media and outside commentators. CNN reported that during a White House meeting on July 3, the President jokingly expressed his worry about his brain. He also mentioned that he would limit his events after 8 pm to get more sleep.
Biden’s situation worsened when he mistakenly referred to himself as the “first black woman” to serve as U.S. President in a radio interview. This clip has been circulating on social media. Polymarket now predicts a 66% chance that Biden will drop out before the U.S. election on November 4, with Harris being the most likely Democrat candidate to face off against Trump.
Despite the mounting pressure to step down, Biden has made it clear that he has no intention of doing so. During an Independence Day speech at the White House on July 4, he stated, “I’m not going anywhere.” Notably, neither Biden nor Trump discussed Bitcoin or any digital asset-related matters during the first Presidential Debate on June 27. The two candidates are scheduled to debate each other again on September 10.