The Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator, which monitors the phases of investor sentiment, has recently shifted to indicate bullish conditions after three days of signaling red as Bitcoin’s price dropped to levels unseen since February.
“Most on-chain cyclical indicators for Bitcoin, which were previously teetering on the edge, have now reverted to indicating a bull market,” stated CryptoQuant founder and CEO Young Ju in a post on X dated August 9.
“Bitcoin remains in a bull market,” echoed the pseudonymous crypto trader PlanB.
The indicator had plunged into “Bear” territory when Bitcoin’s value dipped below $50,000. Source: CryptoQuant
“BTC was only discounted for a mere three days,” Ju asserted. This analysis follows Bitcoin’s fall to $49,751 on August 5, a day being dubbed “Crypto Black Monday.” It marked the first time Bitcoin had dropped below the $50,000 threshold since February. Subsequently, Bitcoin traded below the crucial $60,000 level until August 8, as per data from CoinMarketCap.
At the time of this report, Bitcoin is priced at $60,732.
Bitcoin has seen a 0.35% decline over the past week. Source: CoinMarketCap
The Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator had not displayed a bear signal since January 2023, shortly after the FTX collapse. It wasn’t the sole indicator of bearish sentiment; the Crypto Fear and Greed Index also recorded an “Extreme Fear” score of 17 on August 6, marking the lowest point since the FTX incident. Since then, the index has rebounded to a “Neutral” score of 48.
Some Bitcoin traders speculate that the swift reversal indicates that the recent price drop could have been a bear trap—when savvy traders sell Bitcoin in a controlled manner to temporarily reduce the asset’s price, aiming to ensnare short-sellers.
Analysts are divided on the next steps. While some believe that Bitcoin’s recent decline mirrors past trends preceding bull runs, others express more cautious views.
On August 7, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, remarked, “To optimally time the next bull market entry, we are looking for Bitcoin prices to dip into the low $40,000s.”
In a report dated August 6, Cathie Wood’s investment firm, Ark Invest, highlighted that Bitcoin’s key price supports are situated at $52,000 and $46,000.
Meanwhile, seasoned trader Peter Brandt noted that Bitcoin’s “decline since the halving now mirrors that of the 2015-2017 halving bull market cycle,” hinting that a bull run may be on the horizon.
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