On October 29, Bitcoin (BTC) achieved an unprecedented three-day candle close at $72,724, following a remarkable 8.75% surge within just 24 hours. With BTC surpassing the critical resistance level at $71,500, investors might anticipate a potential return on investment (ROI) ranging from 145% to 530% over the next year.
Bitcoin is on the verge of breaking free from a seven-month price consolidation phase, and the market is on the lookout for a new phase of price exploration following the establishment of fresh all-time highs (ATHs). Recent research and data have produced a variety of forecasts, yet Bitcoin has historically gravitated towards levels indicated by Fibonacci retracement, specifically between 1.618 and 2.272, where past peaks have occurred.
The chart demonstrates that every Bitcoin peak dating back to 2013 has transpired within the Fibonacci range of 1.618 to 2.272. Currently, the price target at the 1.618 level stands at $173,088, while the 2.272 target reaches $458,319. However, historically, Bitcoin’s price has tended to reach peaks slightly below the previous Fibonacci range. For instance, in 2013, the price exceeded the 2.272 mark, while in 2018, the peak fell just short of the 2.272 line. In 2021, the cycle high of $69,800 was beneath the 1.618 level. Consequently, if the trend of diminishing returns over four years persists, the Bitcoin peak in 2025 or 2026 could remain below $173,000.
“Fate of bulls to be decided” at $86,200
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. has identified $86,200 as a pivotal threshold for Bitcoin bulls. Drawing on an analysis of short-term holders and risk assessment, Adler Jr. pointed out that if BTC reaches $86,200, it would hit the high-risk upper boundary for the current cycle.
Historically, this upper-risk boundary served as a significant level where short-term holders capitalized on profits between January 2023 and January 2024, causing BTC to encounter a temporary price ceiling. A breakthrough beyond this point previously triggered an explosive rally in 2021, during which the cryptocurrency underwent price discovery. Adler emphasized that this article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries inherent risks, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any choices.