The S&P 500 Index (SPX) saw its five-week winning streak come to an end last week, falling by 0.42%. This was due to the United States Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index for January rising higher than expected, leading to concerns that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates until later in the year. Previously, there were expectations of a rate cut as early as March.
Despite this negative macroeconomic data, Bitcoin (BTC) remained unaffected and rallied by about 8% to reach $52,137 by the end of the week. This was the highest weekly close for Bitcoin since November 2021. Although $52,000 has been acting as a resistance level in recent days, the Bitcoin bulls have not rushed to book profits. This indicates that market participants remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for Bitcoin.
Another positive factor for Bitcoin is the slowing down of outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). After experiencing outflows of $5.64 billion in January, the outflows have decreased to $1.37 billion in February.
The question now is whether Bitcoin can initiate the next leg of its uptrend and drive select altcoins higher. Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index Price Analysis:
The S&P 500 Index rebounded from the 20-day exponential moving average (4,940) on February 13, indicating an uptrend. However, the bears are not giving up easily and are attempting to defend the overhead resistance of 5,048. The negative divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) suggests a possible correction or consolidation in the short term. If the index breaks below the 20-day EMA, it could indicate the start of a deeper correction, potentially dropping to the 50-day simple moving average (4,813) and subsequently to 4,650. On the other hand, a break above 5,048 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, potentially surging towards 5,200.
U.S. Dollar Index Price Analysis:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) tried to start an upward move on February 13 but faced strong selling pressure near 105. The price turned down and reached the 20-day EMA (104), an important support level to watch. If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will make another attempt to push the index to 106 and then to 107. Conversely, a break below the 20-day EMA would indicate continued selling pressure by the bears. In this case, the index may slump to the 50-day SMA (103), which is likely to attract buyers.
Bitcoin Price Analysis:
Bitcoin is currently consolidating in an uptrend, with the bears attempting to stall the rally at $52,000. However, the bulls have maintained pressure and if they can keep the price above $52,000, it would signal the start of the next leg of the uptrend. In this scenario, the BTC/USDT pair could surge towards $60,000. On the other hand, if the bears quickly bring the price below the 20-day EMA ($48,260), it could trigger stop-loss orders and lead to a plunge towards the 50-day SMA ($44,647).
Ether Price Analysis:
Ether (ETH) rebounded from $2,717 on February 17, indicating the bulls’ attempt to turn this level into support. The ETH/USDT pair broke above the immediate resistance of $2,868 on February 18, signaling a resumption of the uptrend. Buyers will aim to maintain momentum and push the price towards the psychologically significant level of $3,000. However, the RSI above 78 suggests a possibility of a minor correction or consolidation in the near term. Sellers would need to bring the price below the 20-day EMA ($2,615) to indicate a short-term top.
BNB Price Analysis:
BNB has experienced a pullback in its uptrend, indicating profit booking by short-term traders. However, the rising 20-day EMA ($330) and the RSI near overbought territory suggest that the bulls are still in control. If the price turns up and breaks above $367, it would suggest a resumption of the uptrend, potentially rallying to $400. On the downside, if the price continues lower and falls below $348, the pair may reach the 20-day EMA, which could attract buyers. However, if the bears prevail, the pair may plummet to the 50-day SMA ($314).
XRP Price Analysis:
XRP has been trading within a range between the downtrend line and the 20-day EMA ($0.54), indicating indecision between the bulls and bears. The rising 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive zone suggest that the bulls have the upper hand. A break and close above the downtrend line would suggest that the correction may be over, with the XRP/USDT pair attempting a rally to $0.67. However, if the price sharply turns down from the downtrend line and falls below the 20-day EMA, it would indicate that bears remain in control, potentially pushing the pair down to $0.50.
Solana Price Analysis:
Solana pulled back to the neckline of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on February 17, and the bulls successfully defended this level. The upsloping 20-day EMA ($106) and the RSI above 62 indicate that the bulls are in control. A minor resistance at $119 may be crossed, leading to a retest of the strong overhead resistance at $127. If this level is broken, the pair may reach the pattern target of $135. However, if the price turns down and falls below the 20-day EMA, it could negate this optimistic view and result in a drop to the 50-day SMA ($100).
Cardano Price Analysis:
Cardano’s long tail on the February 17 candlestick shows that the bulls continue to see dips to the 20-day EMA ($0.56) as buying opportunities. The bulls are trying to maintain the price above the immediate resistance of $0.62. If successful, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to the crucial resistance at $0.68. This level may witness a tough battle between the bulls and bears, but if the buyers prevail, the next target is expected to be $0.90. On the other hand, a sharp downturn from $0.68 would indicate strong bearish defense, with a break below the 20-day EMA suggesting weakened bullish momentum.
Avalanche Price Analysis:
Avalanche turned down from the $42 level on February 15, but the bulls managed to hold the price above the 20-day EMA ($38.40). The bulls will attempt to clear the obstacle at $42, and if successful, the AVAX/USDT pair will complete an inverse head and shoulders pattern, potentially surging to $50. On the downside, the 20-day EMA is a key support level. If it breaks, the pair may fall to the 50-day SMA ($36.16), indicating a sideways trading range between $32 and $42.
Dogecoin Price Analysis:
Dogecoin faced an attempt by bears to pull it back into the symmetrical triangle pattern on February 17, but the bulls aggressively defended this level. The 20-day EMA has started to turn up, and the RSI is above 63, indicating a bullish comeback. If the bulls break the resistance at $0.09, the DOGE/USDT pair could climb to the $0.10 to $0.11 resistance zone. However, a downturn below the moving averages would indicate strong bearish selling, intensifying further on a break below the uptrend line.
Please note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. It is important to conduct your own research and analysis before making any investment decisions.