Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant drop below the $61,000 level on March 19, causing some traders to exit their positions. In the past two days, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw outflows of around $480 million, according to data from investment firm Farside.
While the recent fall in Bitcoin ETF investments may lead to another round of selling, it does not necessarily mean that the bull market is over. Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Fund, stated in a recent post that it is normal for volatility to increase around the time of the Bitcoin Halving. However, he also mentioned that historically, the 12-month period following the halving has provided the best risk-reward tradeoff for Bitcoin.
Despite the uncertainty in the market, MicroStrategy, one of the largest public holders of Bitcoin, continues to buy more. The company’s Executive Chairman, Michael Saylor, announced in a post that they have purchased an additional 9,245 Bitcoin using proceeds from convertible notes and excess cash. This latest purchase brings their total Bitcoin holdings to 214,246, which is more than 1% of the total 21 million Bitcoin that will ever exist.
Now let’s take a look at the price analysis of the top 10 cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin turned down from the support line of the ascending channel on March 18, indicating bearish pressure. The price fell below the 20-day exponential moving average ($65,271) on March 19. Currently, the bulls are trying to hold the decline at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $61,736. If they succeed, a bounce is likely, but selling pressure could be encountered at the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it suggests strong selling on rallies. The next support level to watch is the 50-day SMA ($56,614), where buyers are expected to step in.
Ether:
Ether failed to maintain its position above the 20-day EMA ($3,550) on March 18, resulting in aggressive selling. The price dropped to the 50-day SMA ($3,113) on March 20. The 20-day EMA has started to turn down, indicating bearish sentiment. The recovery is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA, keeping the price range-bound between both moving averages for some time. A break below the 50-day SMA could lead to a further decline towards $2,717, while a break above the 20-day EMA would suggest a comeback by the bulls.
BNB:
BNB’s pullback reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $500 on March 19, just below the 20-day EMA ($511). The bulls are attempting to stop the fall at the 20-day EMA, which is a positive sign. The next potential resistance level is $590, where a tough battle between bulls and bears could take place. A rejection at $590 would indicate bearish activity at higher levels and increase the risk of a slide to the breakout level of $460. On the other hand, a breakthrough and close above $590 would suggest that the pullback may be over, with a possible climb to $645.
Solana:
Solana pushed above the $205 resistance on March 18 but couldn’t sustain the breakout. This led to profit booking and a dip to the 20-day EMA ($158) on March 20. If the price rebounds strongly from the 20-day EMA, it would indicate positive sentiment and another attempt to break the overhead resistance at $205. A shallow bounce, however, would suggest a lack of aggressive buying, and a drop below the 20-day EMA could accelerate selling, pushing the price towards the 50-day SMA ($126).
XRP:
XRP has been trading within a large range between $0.46 and $0.74 for several months, making it volatile and unpredictable. The pair is currently trying to find support at the uptrend line, but a relief rally is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below the uptrend line, it could drop to the support level at $0.46. On the other hand, a break above the 20-day EMA would indicate a potential comeback by the bulls, with a possible climb towards $0.67 and eventually $0.74.
Cardano:
Cardano turned lower from the 20-day EMA ($0.68) on March 18 and fell below the 50-day SMA ($0.62) on March 19. The pair is currently attempting to find support at $0.57, but a rejection at the moving averages would increase the likelihood of a break below $0.57, potentially leading to a drop to $0.53. A breakthrough above the 50-day SMA would be a positive sign, with the next critical resistance level at the 20-day EMA. A break above this level would suggest a reduction in selling pressure.
Dogecoin:
Dogecoin’s recovery attempts on March 17 were met with selling pressure, causing the price to fall below the 20-day EMA ($0.15) on March 18. The selling continued, and the pair dropped to the strong support level at $0.12 on March 20. Buyers are expected to defend the 50-day SMA ($0.11), but pushing the price above $0.16 could be challenging. The 20-day EMA has started to turn down, indicating bearish sentiment. A break above $0.16 would signal a comeback by the bulls, potentially leading to a rally towards $0.19.
Avalanche:
Avalanche saw profit booking at higher levels on March 18, with the price reaching the breakout level of $50 on March 20. Buyers will attempt to turn $50 into support, potentially leading to a rise towards $65. If the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the pair may consolidate between $50 and $65 for some time. A break below $50 would suggest bearish sentiment, potentially sinking the pair to the 50-day SMA ($42). To resume the uptrend, the bulls need to push the price above $65.
Shiba Inu:
Shiba Inu slipped below the $0.000029 support on March 16, and the bears successfully defended the retest on March 17. This indicates that the bears are trying to turn $0.000029 into resistance. The pair fell to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.000023 on March 20, which is a crucial support level. A break below this level could lead to a drop to the 50-day SMA ($0.000017). To indicate that the correction may be over, the bulls need to drive and sustain the price above the resistance line, potentially leading to a rally towards $0.000035 and $0.000039.
Toncoin:
Toncoin pulled back to the 20-day EMA ($3.39), but the bulls aggressively bought the dip, resulting in a strong bounce on March 17. The bears attempted to sink the price below the 20-day EMA on March 18 and 19 but were unsuccessful. The bulls are now trying to sustain the price above $4.15, with the potential for a rise towards $4.60. A breakthrough and close above this level would indicate the start of the next leg of the uptrend, with a possible target at $5.64. The crucial support level to watch is the 20-day EMA, as a break below it could suggest a local top.
Please note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. It is important to conduct your own research and analysis before making any investment decisions.