Gamblers in the cryptocurrency world are taking bets on whether spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will receive approval from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before May 31. The popular Polygon-based crypto gambling site, Polymarket, has revealed that traders are placing bets on the approval of a spot Ether (ETH) ETF application by the end of May. So far, over $2.4 million worth of bets have been made, with approximately 81% of gamblers being pessimistic about the chances of approval before the deadline.
Crypto traders are purchasing shares, either “Yes” or “No,” based on their predictions. The value of these shares represents the odds of the bet and fluctuates similarly to the crypto market. Currently, a Yes share is valued at $0.19, while a No share is worth $0.81, indicating that fewer gamblers believe in the approval of spot ETH ETFs by the end of May. The top trader holding Yes shares has approximately $84,000 worth, whereas the top holder of No shares has around $127,000.
If the SEC approves a spot Ether ETF before the deadline of May 31, 2024, at 11:59 pm Eastern Time, the market will resolve, allowing Yes share holders to cash out their earnings. However, if there are no approvals before the deadline, the opposite applies.
This is not the first instance of crypto traders gambling on ETF approval results. In January, Polymarket faced criticism from Reddit users for allowing bets on the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC before January 15. Some users described the betting as foolish, comparing it to risking dollars to win dimes, while others joked about potentially losing their children’s college funds.
Overall, the bets made on ETF outcomes have reached at least $12 million in the predictions market. The SEC ultimately approved the trading and listing of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10. Investment management company Grayscale has expressed confidence in a positive decision by the SEC for spot Ether ETFs by May. Grayscale’s chief legal officer, Craig Salm, stated that the SEC’s perceived lack of engagement with applicants does not necessarily indicate whether an ETF will be approved or not.
In other news, KuCoin recently conducted a desperate $10 million airdrop, while a single tweet raised $37 million for a memecoin, as reported by Asia Express magazine.