Bitcoin (BTC) is currently in a consolidation phase, indicating a battle between buyers and sellers. Historically, the 14th week of the year has seen Bitcoin prices decline by an average of 8.33%, according to Coinglass data.
During this period of range-bound movement, traders are closely watching the performance of spot Bitcoin-exchange traded funds, as they have been a major driver of price. In March, trading volume for spot Bitcoin ETFs surged from $42.2 billion to $111 billion, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
However, uncertainty is growing as the Bitcoin halving event approaches. Independent analyst Rekt Capital believes that the recent pullback is part of the pre-halving retracement, which historically resulted in a 38% drop in 2016 and a 20% drop in 2020.
Now, let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to identify important levels to watch.
Bitcoin Price Analysis:
Bitcoin has struggled to break above $71,770, leading to a drop below the 20-day exponential moving average ($67,646) on April 2. The 20-day EMA has flattened out, indicating a balance between supply and demand. If the price falls below the 50-day simple moving average ($63,098), it could potentially drop to $59,000 and then to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $54,298. On the other hand, a rise above the 20-day EMA would suggest a range-bound market, while a breakout above the $71,770 to $73,777 resistance zone would signal the start of the next uptrend leg to $80,000.
Ether Price Analysis:
Ether fell below the 50-day simple moving average ($3,414) on April 2, opening the doors for a retest of the March 20 low of $3,056. The 20-day EMA ($3,493) has started to turn down, indicating bearish momentum. A break below $3,056 could lead to a further decline to $2,700. To prevent this fall, bulls need to push the price back above the moving averages, suggesting a range-bound market between $3,056 and $3,679. A breakout above $3,679 would indicate bullish strength and a potential rise to $4,100.
BNB Price Analysis:
BNB slipped below the 20-day EMA ($561) on April 2, signaling weakening bullish momentum. The 20-day EMA is flattening out, suggesting a range-bound market. If the price rises from the current level, it could potentially reach the downtrend line. However, if it continues to decline and breaks below $535, the next support level is likely at $495. If bears prevail, the price could drop further to the breakout level of $460.
Solana Price Analysis:
Solana fell to the 20-day EMA ($181) on April 2, but a sharp rebound on April 3 indicates positive sentiment and buying on dips. Bulls will attempt to overcome the barrier at $205, which could signal the start of the next uptrend leg to $243 and later to $260. However, if the price turns down from $205, it suggests strong bearish defense, increasing the likelihood of a drop below the 20-day EMA. In that case, short-term traders may sell their positions, pulling the price to the 50-day SMA ($150).
XRP Price Analysis:
XRP remains stuck in a large range between $0.46 and $0.74. The price fell below the uptrend line on April 1, indicating bearish pressure. Buyers are attempting a relief rally, likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($0.61). If the price turns down from this resistance, a drop below $0.56 becomes more likely, with a potential slump to $0.52. On the other hand, a breakout above the 20-day EMA would indicate strong buying at lower levels and a potential rise to $0.69 and eventually $0.74, a key resistance level.
Cardano Price Analysis:
Cardano has been pulled to strong support at $0.57 due to sustained selling pressure. Buyers are expected to defend this level vigorously. A rebound off $0.57 could face selling at the 20-day EMA ($0.64), increasing the possibility of a drop below $0.57. This could complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern and lead to a fall to critical support at $0.46. However, if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it suggests consolidation between $0.57 and $0.68. A rise above $0.68 would indicate the end of the corrective phase.
Dogecoin Price Analysis:
Dogecoin experienced a sharp downturn on April 2, falling below the breakout level of $0.19 and indicating aggressive profit booking by traders. The price slipped below the 20-day EMA ($0.18) on April 3 but showed solid buying at lower levels. If buyers push the price above $0.20, it suggests the correction may be over, with a potential challenge of the overhead resistance at $0.23. However, if the price maintains below the 20-day EMA, it suggests that every minor rally is being sold into, and the price may drop to the 50-day SMA ($0.14).
Avalanche Price Analysis:
Avalanche failed to rise above the downtrend line and dropped below the breakout level of $50 on April 2. The selling continued, with the price falling below the 50-day SMA ($47) on April 3. Buyers are attempting to defend the 50-day SMA, but the recovery may face selling at the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it increases the likelihood of a break below the 50-day SMA, potentially retesting the crucial support at $42. A break and close above the downtrend line would invalidate this bearish view.
Shiba Inu Price Analysis:
Shiba Inu fell below the 20-day EMA ($0.000028) on April 2, indicating continued bearish activity at higher levels. The price could drop to the 50-day SMA ($0.000023), which is expected to act as strong support. If the price rebounds off this level, bulls will attempt to push the pair to $0.000033. A break and close above this level would be the first sign of a bullish comeback, potentially leading to a rally to $0.000039. On the other hand, a plummet below the 50-day SMA suggests a deeper correction toward $0.000017.
Toncoin Price Analysis:
Toncoin reached the 20-day EMA ($4.63) on April 3, an important level to watch. If the rebound off the 20-day EMA holds, it suggests continued buying at lower levels, potentially leading to a range-bound market between the 20-day EMA and $5.69. However, if the price turns down and falls below the 20-day EMA, it signals profit booking by bulls in a hurry, potentially sinking the pair to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $4.22.
Please note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. It is important to conduct your own research and make informed decisions.