Could Bitcoin’s price reach $435,000 by the time of the 2028 halving? Since the last Bitcoin halving in 2020, the price of BTC has surged by approximately 650%, as shown by TradingView data. Currently, it is trading around $66,000. The upcoming 2024 Bitcoin halving is just a few weeks away, and if historical chart patterns repeat themselves, the price of Bitcoin could potentially reach $434,280 per coin by the time of the 2028 halving, assuming a similar performance to the current cycle.
However, it’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s post-halving rallies have seen diminishing returns over the years. The first halving in 2012 resulted in an increase from virtually no value to $12.50, a staggering 12,400% surge. By the 2016 halving, Bitcoin’s price had jumped 5,200% to $650, and by the 2020 halving, it had increased by 1,200% to $8,500.
This diminishing returns trend indicates that Bitcoin’s average price rallies have fallen by 45% in each cycle, leading to the current 658% increase. If this pattern continues, we can expect a 360% rally in the next cycle, resulting in a Bitcoin price of approximately $303,600 at the time of the 2028 halving.
It’s important to note that Bitcoin’s recent price surge is not directly related to the upcoming halving, but is primarily attributed to the inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Hao Yang, head of financial products at Bybit, suggests that if Bitcoin ETFs surpass gold ETFs within the next two years, a six-figure BTC price becomes even more feasible. This sentiment is echoed by a research report from Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas.
Furthermore, Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing rapid growth compared to the initial appearance of gold ETFs in 2004. In fact, Bitcoin is outpacing gold’s price by five times, according to Sam Wouters, the head of contact at River.
It’s important to remember that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. As with any investment or trading decision, there are risks involved, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.