$5B worth of BTC may be sold by Bitcoin miners following the halving, predicts 10x Research.

According to a market analyst, Bitcoin (BTC) miners may experience a significant outflow of the cryptocurrency in the months following the halving, similar to previous cycles. Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x Research, calculated that miners could potentially liquidate $5 billion worth of BTC after the halving. Thielen believes that this selling pressure could last for four to six months, causing Bitcoin to trade sideways, as it has done in the past. He also suggests that crypto markets may face a challenge during a six-month “summer” lull. Historically, Bitcoin prices have remained within a range of $9,000 to $11,500 in the five months following a halving event. This year’s halving is expected to occur around April 20, and if history repeats itself, significant upward movement may not be seen until around October. Thielen also noted that miners tend to accumulate BTC before the halving, leading to a supply/demand imbalance and a subsequent rally in prices. This has already been observed, with BTC prices surging 74% in 2024 to reach an all-time high of $73,734 before correcting in mid-April. Thielen believes that altcoins, in particular, could suffer due to this situation, as many have been experiencing significant declines recently. Marathon, the world’s largest Bitcoin miner, is also expected to gradually sell its inventory after the halving to avoid a revenue decline. The researcher estimates that if all miners have a similar strategy, it could result in a maximum of $104 million worth of BTC being sold per day, potentially reversing the supply/demand imbalance that caused the pre-halving rally. Marathon currently produces 28-30 BTC per day, and after the halving, this could increase to 14-15 BTC per day. Marathon CEO Peter Thiel has stated that the firm’s break-even rate after the halving would be around $46,000 per BTC, indicating that significant price movements are unlikely in the six months following the event.