Disputing the ‘black swan event’: What is the potential bottom for the Bitcoin price?

Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a significant drop of up to 15% since the weekend, leading traders and analysts to consider where the market may bottom out and how soon this could happen. As of April 16, BTC/USD is hovering around $62,000 after a failed rebound from the $61,000 level. Analyst Mark Cullen believes that Bitcoin could see another downward move, potentially taking it to around $59,000, based on the Elliott Wave method. This would be the lowest price level since late February and a drawdown of around 20% from recent all-time highs. Another analyst, Matthew Hyland, pointed out that BTC/USD has lost the support of its 10-week simple moving average (SMA), which currently sits at $64,130. This has not happened since mid-2023. Binh Dang, a contributor to the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, predicts that Bitcoin could stay at lower levels for a longer period before retesting its highs based on his adjusted cumulative value days destroyed (CVDD) metric. However, he does not anticipate the current downturn to reach the panic levels seen during the COVID-19 crash in March 2020. The worst-case scenario, according to Dang, would be a drop to just under $40,000. It is important to note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.