Bitcoin enters the month of June with strong momentum as it aims to break key resistance levels. The question on everyone’s mind is whether this week will finally see a breakout for Bitcoin. After being rangebound for nearly three months, BTC/USD is expected to continue its upward movement, but hodlers may need to exercise patience. The upcoming days could provide the necessary catalyst for bulls to push through, with the release of United States unemployment figures later in the week. On-chain indicators are also signaling a bullish comeback for Bitcoin, and network fundamentals are gradually returning to all-time highs. As Bitcoin’s price and sentiment recover, let’s explore the major factors that Bitcoin traders are facing in June.
The price level of $69,000 holds significant importance for the week. BTC/USD experienced some volatility over the weekend but ultimately closed the week at the same level. However, as the new week began, Bitcoin bulls took charge and pushed the price higher during the Asia trading session. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading above $69,000 and is testing this level as a strong support. Traders are closely monitoring the market’s acceptance and sustainability above $69,000, as it will pave the way for further upside potential. The majority of bids are currently around $66,000, with increasing ask liquidity above $70,000. It is essential for spot bids to move higher towards $67,000 to confirm the bullish trend.
On-chain metrics are also indicating a potential breakout for Bitcoin. Recent data suggests that Bitcoin is repeating key breakout patterns from earlier in 2024. Additionally, there has been a five-day compression in Bitcoin’s price, which is the highest level in eight years. This compression has been accompanied by a Bollinger Band breakout against U.S. M1 money supply, a pattern not seen since 2017. These indicators are further fueling the bullish sentiment among traders.
Unemployment data in the United States will also play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin’s future trajectory. Bitcoin and crypto markets have been highly sensitive to employment data, especially when it falls short of expectations. High unemployment rates suggest that the Federal Reserve’s tight financial conditions are impacting the economy. If unemployment continues to rise, there may be increased chances of the Federal Reserve unwinding these conditions sooner rather than later. Clarity on this matter is expected later in the month when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to discuss interest rate changes.
While macroeconomic data may be relatively calm at the beginning of the week, Bitcoin’s price is preparing for a breakout from its longest consolidation period yet. Bitcoin has historically shown a strong correlation with global liquidity, and the latest chart data confirms this. The comparison between BTC/USD and U.S. M1 money supply is extremely bullish, indicating that Bitcoin is ready for a significant breakout. The breakout phase began in 2023, but it is yet to make a substantial impact. The seven-year consolidation period suggests that the upcoming breakout will be highly volatile. Traders and analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s future, with some predicting a “mega moon” if the breakout occurs.
Bitcoin network fundamentals are slowly recovering after a decline during May’s price drop. The difficulty is expected to increase by approximately 1.7% on June 6, following a 1.5% increase two weeks ago. This will help offset the previous 5.6% drop in difficulty. Hash rate, which represents the processing power dedicated to the Bitcoin network, is consolidating after reaching record highs in April. However, miners are facing challenging conditions, and their net BTC holdings have been declining. This trend has accelerated in recent weeks, with miner balances 2,500 BTC lower than 30 days ago. Despite this, the reduction in balances is not as steep as it was before the block subsidy halving in April.
In a surprising move, one of the popular trading platforms, Kraken, witnessed a significant withdrawal of approximately 48,000 BTC ($3.44 billion) over the weekend. This marks one of the largest daily withdrawals in BTC terms since the end of the 2022 Bitcoin bear market. Market observers have noted this supply shock and anticipate an all-time high for Bitcoin’s price. The trend of declining BTC balances on exchanges is not unique to Kraken, as exchanges have been experiencing solid demand for BTC in recent years.
In conclusion, Bitcoin is entering June with strong momentum and aims to break key resistance levels. Traders are closely watching the price action, on-chain indicators, and macroeconomic data to determine the next move for Bitcoin. The potential breakout from the longest consolidation period yet is creating excitement among market participants. Network fundamentals are slowly recovering, but miners are facing challenges. The significant withdrawal from Kraken has added to the anticipation of an all-time high for Bitcoin’s price. However, it is important to note that investing in Bitcoin carries risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.