Ether (ETH) is currently grappling with the $3,000 resistance level after experiencing an impressive 29.7% surge from Feb. 6 to Feb. 20. Analysts attribute the recent gains in ETH to a decrease in supply, driven by the growing demand for staking, decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, and the network’s proof-of-stake burn mechanism.
While reaching $3,000 is impressive, the real question is whether ETH can reclaim the sought-after $3,300 level last seen in March 2022. Crypto investor Ryan Sean Adams suggests that Ethereum hasn’t even hit its demand season yet and speculates that the potential introduction of a spot Ether exchange-traded fund (ETF) could boost its price.
Supply data shows a decrease of 18,960 ETH in total coins circulating over the past 30 days, indicating a decrease in available supply. However, it’s important to note that this metric doesn’t necessarily reflect the ETH available for sale. Looking at the net transfers to exchanges, there has been a preference for net withdrawals since Feb. 15, although this could change easily.
Contrary to expectations, Ether’s price remained relatively steady in the 30 days leading up to Jan. 5, suggesting that the dynamics of staking and demand for ETH in decentralized applications don’t directly impact the supply available for sale.
Technically, the potential approval of the ETF could trigger a rally in Ether’s price, but the likelihood of Ether consolidating above $3,300 diminishes if Bitcoin’s bullish momentum falters. Additionally, the historical correlation between BTC and ETH prices remains noteworthy.
Instead of fixating on the ETF decision in May, traders should examine other catalysts, such as the demand for ETH stemming from airdrop snapshots and the overall Ethereum network demand. For example, enthusiasm for upcoming Ethereum token launches dimmed after the highly anticipated Starknet (STRK) airdrop, leading to a significant drop in price.
To gauge professional traders’ stance on Ether’s price, one can analyze the price of ETH futures monthly contracts compared to regular spot markets. Currently, the Ether one-month futures premium remains above 14%, indicating sustained demand for leverage longs. This suggests that ETH bulls need not worry about supply on exchanges or the use of leverage in futures markets, making the prospect of ETH surpassing $3,300 still plausible.
Please note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.